2009年12月12日星期六

Fwd: 格林斯潘外传--李锅会面



---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: 陈皓 <haochenjsf@gmail.com>
Date: 2008/9/17
Subject: 格林斯潘外传--李锅会面
To: haochenjsf@gmail.com


(一)
1948年徐盆(蚌)会战,红朝底定。
1994年李锅会战(会见加论战),中共"卷旗不缴枪",开始闷声发大财。
自94年以后,中国做了许多对的事,美国则相反。
因为美国的方寸已乱。

(二)
美国的政治决策体制,不是"民主制",而是"共和制",即寡头圆桌会议。
能决定美国命运的,大约一百来人,本嘉明在拙作<<本嘉明科幻系列>>中称为"全
总"(小时候全总文工团的相声听多了闹的),现在觉得也可以叫"兄弟连",差不
多一个连的人数。
这100人来自36个大财团董事长和一些豪族,特征是:
1)男性老年白人,多数信仰基督教福音教派和犹太教,少数信爱尔兰天主教(肯尼迪
家族)
2)终身制,家族世袭,不担任公职(仅福特例外),家财十忆以上。
3)操纵多个政权,如美国,以色列。
4)兄弟连是地下党,外围组织是团组织,所以关键公职,由党中央自团员中选拔。
团中央第一书记是总统,第二书记是FED主席,历届标兵有基辛格等,属于职业经理
人和师爷阶层。
阁下要问:两会议员呢?
那是一群鸭子,无脑无爪,徒有其嗓。但间中混几只秃鹰,扮鸭吃老鼠。
所以较少女性议员,因为女士当鸭子,痛苦且难。看奥鸭斗希鸭,便知分晓。


说到李总,不可能绕过89年。他在其中的功过,不如人们腹诽得那样大。
否臧政治人物,不能究其个人意愿,要看政绩实效。诡吊的是,以不同时空标准衡
量,结论往往相反。如绿锅,从美国+50年看,他基本称职;从全球+100年看,他可
能严重渎职。
当年尼克松见主席,豪情万丈地说:"我们在一起,可以改变世界。"
红太阳淡淡说:"我身体不好,就不送你了。"----焚香换帖找恩来,过我手做甚?

从此中美隐性同盟。
1979年,邓公顶着北线极大威胁,"悍然"对越用兵。大杀苏联威风。把个华国锋
式的木匠总统卡特激动得:自己不会砍人,总算有个能砍的兄弟撑腰了。
从此中美显性同盟,又称蜜月。
1989年前后的情形,好比中,美,苏三家在葡京赌场的VIP房玩"梭哈",中美联手,
把苏联坐庄阿富汗整成了抽血庄,大亏。轮到中国坐庄,本想美国会护庄,平进平
出地轮过去算了。没曾想美国突然反水。
东亚社会稍富后,大学生带头反对过度威权,是社会常态,日本韩国台湾都有过,
美国护盘,大事化小。中国一开始以为剧情是一样的,但美国不但不帮,反而酝酿
颜色革命。北京震惊之余,一定沟通过,商量过,恳求过。美国处心积虑已久,绝
意要置你于死地而后快。十年夫妻,床头睡了个白眼狼。
此时在牌桌上,中共已然技穷。区区几十个筹码,即便SHOW-HAND,也压不住预谋已
久的山姆。山姆身后的帮闲们,异口同声:"谁叫你不懂普世价值,公民社会,兀自
是个蛮子。大哥看在兄弟情分上,出手了断你,是你的造化!"
以下恕我用文言演绎,因为古汉语实在太美:高贵坚定,冷而有力。

邓公大忿,目眦尽裂,振衣而起曰:"某所恃者,三百金及贱躯尔。今大王以千金
搏之,无妨,惟五步之内,请以颈血溅大王!"举室皆震,山姆惭而莫能仰视。公
遂扫三百金于池,裂帛勒口,自断三指掷于上,訾众人曰:"此三指当千金乎?从
今割袍断义,两无亏欠。犹不服者,某扫柴门,扶棺与战!"言讫踉跄而出,沥血
满庭,呜咽泣啼不稍闻。山姆阵中,人人挢舌目送,无一骑敢纵追之。

本嘉明小学三年级开始看原本<<三国演义>>,不识的字,跳过去,革命一样成功。
在这里我要负历史责任地告诉大家:
1989年,中国死人了。手指是自己的,只要心智正常,不会随便不要的。
1989年,兄弟连也尿裤子了。可怜一群老男人,无一幸免,全尿。

这个祸闯得太大了。兄弟连突然就像一个无助的小男孩,盼望来个女巫,把一切变
回从前。当是时也,群鸭狂吠,老布什则发疯般找一切机会补锅----只有他知道一
旦中国人熬过来了意味着什么。 

(四)
当时邓公有3选择:
1)拿自己的300金筹码SHOW HAND.美国跟300,大家看底牌.因为中共的牌被抹黑成贪污专制,美国是民主博爱,美国赢.
2)中共SHOW HAND,美国跟300,随后加300.中共无筹码可跟,认输.
3)邓公SHOW HAND,同时押3根手指.此时兄弟连再多金也无用,要跟,你也跟300金加3手指.赌的规矩就是如此,这已不是赌钱,是赌狠.

邓公筹码不够,只有赌狠.
挡得一拳开,免得百拳来.这一挡,要非常疯狂,令敌丧胆,即便有力也不敢再发第二拳.
因为中共已没有能力挡第二拳了.
美国并不怕邓公切指(开枪),反而惟恐他不切指.因为美国的算计是一旦切指,由于中共体质虚弱,将大出血而死.
中共只带了钱包去聚赌,突然要切指,手忙脚乱准备一切.美国很耐心地等.
赵紫阳举手:报告班长,我晕血.
邓在他后面一拍桌子:你玩不歹,我去玩.先人板板,幸好老子还没死.
李鹏有没有煽风点火,添油加醋,不重要.千钧一发时,只有狠过头,唱 "血染的空城计".
切下的三根手指,是:军心,民心(尤其北京市民),知识分子之心(尤其小知识分子).
军心是个大伤口,但很快收拢了.另两个小伤口也没有大出血.
中共扛过一劫.
自罗斯福到里根,美国在全世界的形象是格里高利.派克加上高仓健,其他国家像深情的少女围在周围,东欧的少女则远远地羡慕.美国是有魅力而且负责任的,跟他睡了,哪怕是五奶七奶他也照顾到底.而1989之后,美国更像陈冠兮,基本上还不如.
中国跟欧洲比,对美国有四大好处:
1)有核武.
2)统一,要上一起上
3)不怕俄国(当然副作用是也不怕美国)
4)还没看清美国,有嫁狗随狗的奴化外交作风.
就这样的盟友也敢下刀子,欧洲这一篮子碎饼有什么可珍惜的?
世事是有因果的,欧洲出了希拉克,施罗德;中国尽力帮普京度过最难的日子.大家都寒心了.
没有人站在街上挑衅美国,但少女们的眼神突然就变了.美国没明白哪里出了岔子,顾影自怜了十年,终于拉登给他脸上添了道疤,他一下觉得自己的精力有地方去发泄了,有事做心里就不那么茫然了.
自二战中的那帮精锐兄弟连过世,这应该又传了一两代了,感觉上他们退化得太厉害.
他们选的项目都是对的,哪怕是伊战阿战,但就在错的时间去办.如果那件事在96年发动呢?农民,下岗工人,李登辉,就都上街了.
好,回到李鹏和绿锅.
1)李总只是在89年摇旗呐喊,没有李总,会有其他人奔走于途.李鹏做了他认为对的事.他不能对自己子女的行为负责(今天这种要求对高级干部高得不切实际了),但理所当然要凭自己的行为对自己的老爸负责.
他的父亲是周恩来.
2)如果这一茬兄弟连人品性格有如此大问题,他们相中的绿锅又该如何呢?
在李锅会中,他表现的倨傲自负,跟他的年纪不符.物以类聚,本届兄弟连就这水平了.
难怪BILL GATES 要捐得干干净净:他这身价必须入党了,我当回老百姓还不行吗?
I QUIT.




--
陈皓



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2009年4月24日星期五

理想与现实(1)

Perceptions and Reality
理想与现实

Two Strategic Intelligence Mistakes in Korea, 1950
1950年在朝鲜半岛的两个战略情报失误

P. K. Rose

0n 25 June 1950, the North Korean People's Army of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) swept across the 38th parallel and came close to uniting the Korean peninsula under the Communist regime of Kim Il-sung. American military and civilian leaders were caught by surprise, and only the intercession of poorly trained and equipped US garrison troops from Japan managed to halt the North Korean advance at a high price in American dead and wounded. Four months later, the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) intervened in massive numbers as American and UN forces pushed the North Koreans back across the 38th parallel. US military and civilian leaders were again caught by surprise, and another costly price was paid in American casualties.

1950年6月25日,朝鲜人民军全面突破38线向韩国发起进攻,以期统一朝鲜半岛。美国的领导人们大为震惊,慌乱中只能派遣驻扎在日本的训练不足装备短缺的守备部队前往战争一线,在人民军凌厉的攻势下,美军伤亡惨重。4个月后,当美军和联合国军击溃人民军并越过38线后,中国人民解放军大军入朝参战,美国的领导人们又一次震惊了,美军再次遭受了重大伤亡。

Two strategic intelligence blunders within six months: yet the civilian and military leaders involved were all products of World War II, when the attack on Pearl Harbor had clearly demonstrated the requirement for intelligence collection and analysis. The answers to why it happened are simple, and they hold lessons that are relevant today.

六个月内连续两次出现战略情报的重大失误:美国的领导人们都刚经历过二战,珍珠港事件已经表明了情报收集和分析的重要性。为何领导人们一次又一次的震惊?答案十分简单,而且现在他们又被上了一课。

The role of intelligence in America's national security is often misunderstood. Intelligence information has to exist within the greater context of domestic US political perception. With the defeat of Japan, our historically isolationist nation moved quickly to look inward again. The armed forces were immediately reduced in number, defense spending was cut dramatically, and intelligence resources met a similar fate. The looming conflict with Communism was focused on Europe, our traditional geographic area of interest.

美国国家安全情报的规则常被误解,情报工作总是要服从国内的政治环境。随着日本投降,我国历史上的孤立主义再次抬头,部队裁员,国防支出大量削减,而情报工作也面临同样的窘境。我们把注意力都放到了欧洲——美国的传统战略重心。

The war had produced a crop of larger-than-life military heroes, and perhaps the biggest was Gen. Douglas MacArthur, Far East Commander and virtual ruler of a defeated Japan.

二战成就了大批战斗英雄,其中光环最耀眼的一位非道格拉斯•麦克阿瑟将军莫属——远东地区美军总司令和日本的实际统治者。

While many considered MacArthur brilliant, his military career also contained numerous examples of poor military judgment. He had few doubts about his own judgment, however, and for over a decade had surrounded himself with staff officers holding a similar opinion. MacArthur was confident of his capabilities to reshape Japan, but he had little knowledge of Chinese Communist forces or military doctrine. He had a well-known disregard for the Chinese as soldiers, and this became the tenet of the Far Eastern Command (FEC).

尽管英雄的光环十分耀眼,但是麦克阿瑟的军事生涯中有不少低级失误。他不承认这点,而且他身边的参谋军官们也持同样的观点。麦克阿瑟对于改造日本社会显得信心十足,但是他对新中国的军事力量所知甚少。众所周知,麦克阿瑟很是蔑视中国的军力,这也成为了远东司令部的共识。

In January 1950, Secretary of State Dean Acheson had publicly declared a defensive containment line against the Communist menace in Asia, based upon an island defense line. The Korean peninsula was outside that line.

1950年1月,国务卿艾奇逊公开宣称要建立一条基于第一岛链的抵御“共产主义威胁”的防线,而朝鲜半岛恰好位于这条防线的外围。

Still, America viewed Korea as one of several developing democratic nations that could serve as counterbalances to Communist expansion. In March 1949, President Truman approved National Security Council Memorandum 8/2, which warned that the Soviets intended to dominate all of Korea, and that this would be a threat to US interests in the Far East. That summer, the President sent a special message to Congress citing Korea as an area where the principles of democracy were being matched against those of Communism. He stated the United States "will not fail to provide the aid which is so essential to Korea at this critical time."

美国人视韩国为阻止共产主义扩张的桥头堡。1949年3月,杜鲁门总统签署通过了8/2国家安全备忘录,强调苏联有意控制整个朝鲜半岛,进而威胁美国在远东的利益。同年夏天,杜鲁门总统对国会说,民主制的韩国是对抗共产主义的重要力量,他宣称美国“在这个关键时刻,不会吝啬给予韩国的一切必要援助。”


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2009年4月21日星期二

美军第八集团军历史(补完)

接上篇:

Unable to establish a defensive line in North Korea, Eighth Army withdrew below the 38th Parallel. On Dec. 23, General Walker was killed in a jeep accident, and on Dec. 26, Lt. Gen. Matthew B. Ridgway assumed command of UNC ground forces in Korea. Under his direction, the enemy's offensive was stalled south of Seoul and the UNC made plans to strike back. By the end of May 1951, the battle lines were established where today's Demilitarized Zone exists -- northeastward from the Han River Estuary in the west, less than 30 miles from Seoul, to north of the 38th Parallel on the east coast.


由于无法在朝鲜建立稳固防线,第八集团军开始撤回38线以南。1223日,沃克将军在一次车祸中丧生,1226日,Matthew B 李奇微中将奉命接管联合国军指挥权。在他的指挥下,敌军的攻势止步于汉城以南,而联合国军开始谋划下一步的反击。到了19515月底,战线稳定在今天的半岛军事分界线一带。


On April 11, 1951, General Ridgway replaced General MacArthur as Commander-in-Chief, United Nations Command (and as Supreme Commander U.S. Army Pacific and Commander-in-Chief, Far East) and Lt. Gen. James A. Van Fleet took command of the Eighth Army. On July 10, 1951, after a Soviet hint that talks would be welcome, truce negotiations were begun at Kaesong, on the 38th Parallel. The front lines, except for periodic and bloody fights over particularly strategic terrain in what was called the "Hill War," stayed fairly constant.


1951411日,李奇微将军接替麦克阿瑟将军成为联合国军最高指挥官(同时也是美军远东及太平洋地区最高指挥官,)James A. 范弗里特中将成为第八集团军新任司令官。1951710日,在苏联暗示了对话的可能性之后,参战双方在38线附近的开城进行了停战谈判。而在前线,围绕着一系列战略要地,残酷的战斗仍在持续。


A frustrating two years of stalemate ensued. The communists lacking hope of a military victory but with no desire for real peace, used the talks for propaganda, impossible demands, and irrelevant and divergent issues while hoping for some striking political victory. Eighth Army, meanwhile, had to maintain readiness for any renewal of hostilities. The UNC negotiators gradually got some issues settled, but their determination not to return any unwilling prisoner of war was used by the communists as an excuse to stall on other issues as well.


接下来的两年时间里,参战双方一直僵持着。社会主义阵营眼看军事胜利无望,却又不愿真正和谈。他们利用停战谈判做幌子,不断提出无法实现的或是毫不相干的要求,以期得到政治上的优势。第八集团军在此期间一直整军备战。联合国军的代表在谈判过程中逐渐获得主动权,但是他们坚持战俘自愿遣返的原则被对方代表利用,并以此作为阻挠谈判顺利进行的借口。


On Feb. 1, 1953, Lt. Gen. Maxwell D. Taylor succeeded to the Eighth Army command. President Eisenhower, who had pledged to end the Korean bloodshed, renewed the call for a cease fire. Recessed negotiations were resumed. An improving atmosphere was perceived in an agreement on exchange of sick and wounded POWs. Another breakdown in the talks was threatened when ROK President Syngman Rhee, who bitterly opposed the truce negotiations in favor of a military victory, in June unilaterally released some 27,000 anti-Communist POWs. The UNC's patience, if not persuasion, prevailed and the Cease Fire Agreement was signed on July 27, 1953.


195321日,Maxwell D.泰勒中将接过第八集团军的指挥权。宣称要结束朝鲜战争的艾森豪威尔总统再次发出停火的号召,中断多时的停战谈判得以重新启动。作为缓解对立气氛的措施,双方交换了一批伤病战俘。但是时任韩国总统的李承晚却极力反对停战谈判,6月,李承晚单方面释放了27000名所谓的不愿遣返的战俘。联合国军方面顶住压力继续推动谈判进程,最终,参战双方于1953727日签订了停战协议。


As General Taylor later told his troops, the cease fire did not mean that the war was over; it was a "suspension of hostilities -- an interruption of the shooting." And so it remains today.


正如泰勒将军对第八集团军将士说的那样,停战协议并不意味着战争的结束,只不过是“暂时停止行动”,直到今天,仍是如此。


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2009年4月20日星期一

美军第八集团军历史

TOTAL U.S. ARMY COMBAT CASUALTIES

美军战斗伤亡统计

 (Note: Does not include non-combat deaths nor USMC, USN or USAF combat casualties)

(注:不包括美军海军陆战队、美军海军、美军空军的非战斗伤亡数据)

KILLED IN ACTION                19,334

WOUNDED IN ACTION            77,596

DIED OF WOUNDS                    2,452

MISSING IN ACTION              3,778

DIED IN CAPTIVITY               2,436

TOTAL COMBAT CASUALTIES       107,757

战斗阵亡    19334

战斗负伤    77596

因伤死亡    2452

失踪           3778

被俘后死亡 2436

总伤亡         107757

 

History of the Eighth United States Army

美军第八集团军历史

The Eighth U.S. Army was officially activated in the continental United States on June 10, 1944, and ordered to the Pacific where, under the command of Lt. Gen. Robert L. Eichelberger, it earned the sobriquet of "Amphibious Eighth" while making more than 60 "island-hopping" assaults. It assisted in the liberation of the Philippines and on July 1, 1945, assumed control of the archipelago, bringing enemy resistance to an end. Eighth Army was being readied for the main assault on the Kanto Plain (Tokyo) of the Japanese main island, when V-J Day changed its mission. Along with the Sixth Army, EUSA provided the ground forces for the United States’ occupation of Japan. Occupational forces landed peacefully on August 30, 1945; first the northern portion and, after January 1, 1946, all of Japan came under EUSA's jurisdiction.

第八集团军于1944610日在美国本土组建,后被派往太平洋地区,首任司令官是Robert L.艾克尔伯格中将。因为执行过超过60次“两栖蛙跳”作战行动,第八集团军也被称为“第八两栖集团军”。第八集团军参加了解放菲律宾的战斗,并于194571日彻底控制菲律宾群岛,结束敌人的抵抗。同时,第八集团军还做好了进攻日本本土的准备,直到日本宣布无条件投降,任务方告结束。战后,作为占领军与第六集团军一起进驻日本,并于194611日完全控制日本。

Part of Eighth Army's post-war duties included disarming Japanese military forces; destroying the nation's war making potential; conducting the trial of war criminals; guiding the defeated nation into peaceful pursuits and the democratic way of life; encouraging economic rehabilitation, local autonomy, and education and land reform; guarding installations; protecting supply routes and watching over government operations.

作为占领军,第八集团军的战后职责包括解除日军武装;摧毁日本战争潜力;管理战犯;引导日本进入战后和平状态;鼓励经济复兴,地方自治,教育改革和土地改革;保卫军事设施和供给线,并监督政府运行。

The Pacific Campaign had been hard, rough, and costly; the occupation of Japan was interesting, challenging, and varied. Eighth Army's next challenge would again be demanding and bloody. The Cold War between East and West was rudely shattered in the Far East on June 25, 1950. North Korean troops, spearheaded by Russian-built tanks, invaded the Republic of Korea. The United Nations demanded a halt to the aggression, then asked its members to aid South Korea. President Truman responded, on 25 June 1950, by directing General MacArthur to furnish Air Force, Navy and logistic assistance. This was promptly rendered, but north Korea's overwhelming strength quickly made it evident that only the commitment of outside ground forces could prevent an early conquest of South Korea by North Korea.

太平洋战争艰苦卓绝,伤亡惨重,而占领日本的行动也是复杂多变。此时第八集团军开始面临着下一个挑战——冷战。1950625日,东西方的冷战在远东地区突然爆发——朝鲜军队以苏制坦克为先锋,突破边界进攻韩国。联合国决定制止此次入侵并号召其成员国协助韩国。杜鲁门总统于战争爆发的当天作出回应,指派麦克阿瑟将军向韩国提供空中、海上和后勤支援。尽管美国反应迅速,但是朝鲜军队势不可挡的攻势表明:只有出动地面部队才有可能阻止朝鲜对韩国的占领。

General MacArthur turned to the Eighth Army. Elements of the 24th Infantry Division entered Korea on June 30, 1950, establishing headquarters at Taejon. U.S. Army forward forces -- Task Force Smith -- were badly bloodied in a gallant, but disastrous, stand north of Osan on July 5 -- the first American ground engagement of the Korean War.

1950630日,麦克阿瑟将军派遣第八集团军所属的第24步兵师主力进入韩国,并在大田建立指挥部。美军前锋——史密斯特遣队于75日在乌山(Osan)与敌人展开了惨烈悲壮的战斗,这意味着美军地面部队正式参战。

On July 6, the 25th Infantry Division was ordered to move to Pusan and, on that day, Lt. Gen. Walton H. Walker, who had succeeded Gen. Eichelberger in 1948, took command of U.S. Army forces in Korea. Temporary advance headquarters were established on July 7 at Taegu, and Eighth Army became operational in Korea by July 13. The north Koreans continued to push down the peninsula against the outnumbered American and scattered Republic of Korea defenders. The 24th Inf. Div., struggling tenaciously to slow the invaders, surrendered Taejon on July 21 in street-by-street, house-by-house combat. The division's forces were spread as far south as Taegu and its commander, Maj. Gen. William F. Dean, was missing in the battle for Taejon. Although defeated there, EUSA gained time to stiffen its resistance with the 25th and 1st Cavalry Divisions arriving to man sectors of the shrinking front.

76日,第25步兵师奉命开往釜山,同一天,于1948年接替Robert L.艾克尔伯格中将成为第八集团军司令官的Walton H. 沃克中将就任朝鲜半岛的美军总司令,其临时指挥部于77日在大丘成立,而第八集团军全军于713日参战。此时朝鲜军队正以绝对优势的兵力突破美军和稀松的韩国军队的防御,稳步向半岛南部推进。第24步兵师进行了艰苦卓绝的抵抗以期迟滞朝鲜军队的进攻步伐,721日,他们在已被重重包围的大田逐街逐屋地与敌人周旋。该师逐次抵抗至大丘,其师长 William F. 迪安少将在大丘的战斗中失踪。由于24步兵师在大丘的顽强抵抗,使得第八集团军有充足的时间派遣第25步兵师和第1骑兵师进入前线巩固防御。

EUSA, with the remaining ROK forces assigned to it, was moved into the southeast corner of Korea which became known as the Pusan Perimeter. General Walker declared that Pusan would be no Dunkirk: "The Eighth Army would stay in Korea until the invader was expelled from the territory of the Republic of Korea." Fighting off continued attacks all across the perimeter, the Eighth Army held and grew in strength .

在整编了残余的韩国军队后,第八集团军开进半岛的东南角——釜山防线。沃克将军宣称釜山不是敦克尔克:“第八集团军将一直坚守,直到侵略者撤出韩国领土。”面对朝鲜军队对釜山防线的全面进攻,第八集团军奋力抵抗。

On September 15, the X Corps, formed in Japan, poured ashore at Inchon in what is considered one of the world's outstanding tactical moves. It was the signal that Eighth Army had awaited. The next day, EUSA launched a general attack. The North Koreans resisted savagely for five days while United Nations Command air forces pounded their lines of communication and supply. Their defense crumbled, and EUSA achieved a breakout and was on the road northward. With UNC forces fighting inland from Inchon towards Seoul, the invader's line of retreat was blocked. The north Korean withdrawal became a rout; only disorganized remnants were able to reach north Korea.

915日,麦克阿瑟将军指挥X部队由日本出发成功登陆仁川——这被认为是世界上最杰出的战术行动之一。这也是第八集团军一直期待的信号。第二天,第八集团军便发动了全面反击,朝鲜军队顽强抵抗了5天,直到联合国军的空军重创了他们的通信和补给线。朝鲜军队开始溃退,第八集团军成功突破敌人的防线并开始向北进军。随着联合国军从仁川进攻并占领汉城,朝鲜军队的撤退路线被截断,撤退变成了溃散,只有少量残部回到了朝鲜。

A new phase had begun. On October 7, the 1st Cavalry Division pushed across the 38th Parallel, which Republic of Korea troops had breached several days before. Eighth Army drove northward in the west against demoralized resistance. X Corps, transported by sea to Wonsan, followed ROK troops up the east coast. On October 19, the north Korean capital of Pyongyang fell. ROK troops reached the Yalu River on Oct. 28. After pausing briefly to improve the logistical situation and regroup personnel, the UNC started a drive on November 24 to extend control over all north Korea. The next day, communist Chinese "volunteers" attacked across the Yalu in what Gen. MacArthur termed "a brand new war." The Eighth Army was pushed back by overwhelming numbers of fresh, well-equipped, and well-disciplined Chinese forces who used the mountains to their great advantage.

朝鲜战争的新一个阶段开始了。107日,第1骑兵师在击败朝鲜军队几天的抵抗后越过38线。第八集团军沿着半岛西部向北推进,沿途只遇到零星抵抗。X部队通过海运抵达元山,沿着东海岸追击朝鲜军队。1019日,朝鲜首都平壤失陷,朝鲜军队于1028日撤退至鸭绿江。经过短暂休整,联合国军于1124日开始了旨在控制朝鲜全境的行动。第二天,中国人民志愿军跨过鸭绿江参战,麦克阿瑟将军称之为 “新的战争”。面对装备精良,训练有素的志愿军利用半岛山地有利地形的势不可挡的攻势,第八集团军开始后撤。


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2009年4月19日星期日

2009年中国房地产行业报告(摘要)

自己翻译了一小段:

Report of Chinese Real Estate Industry, 2009

2009年中国房地产行业报告(摘要)

In 2008, China totally invested 3.058 trillion Yuan in the real estate development (437 billion USD), up by 20.9% of 2007, including 2.2081 trillion Yuan (315.4 billion USD) in the commercial residential building, up by 22.6%, accounting for 72.2% in the real estate development investment. In 2008, Chinese real estate enterprises totally received capital funds of 3.8146 trillion Yuan (545 billion USD), up by 1.8% of 2007, including domestic loans of 725.7 billion Yuan (103.7 billion USD), up by 3.4%, private-raised funds of 1.5081 trillion Yuan (215.5 billion USD), up by 28.1% and personal mortgage loans of 357.3 billion Yuan (51 billion USD), down by 29.7%.

2008年,中国完成房地产开发投资30580亿元人民币(约合4370亿美元),同比增长20.9%。其中商业住宅完成投资22081万亿元人民币(约合3154亿美元),占房地产开发总投资的72.2%,同比增长22.6%。2008年,中国房地产开发企业共获得资金投入38146亿元(约合5450亿美元),同比增长1.8%。其中,国内贷款7257亿元(约合1037亿美元),增长3.4%;企业自筹资金15081亿元(约合2155亿美元),增长28.1%;个人按揭贷款3573亿元(约合510亿美元),下降29.7%。

In 2008, the building construction areas of Chinese real estate development enterprises were 2.74 billion square meters, increased by 16.0% of 2007, the newly constructed areas of 980 million square meters, increased by 2.3% and the completed areas of 590 million square meters, down by 3.5%. The completed areas of the residential buildings were 480 billion square meters, decreased by 4.2%.

2008年,中国房地产开发企业房屋施工面积27.4亿平方米,同比增长16.0%;房屋新开工面积9.8亿平方米,同比增长2.3%;房屋竣工面积5.9亿平方米,同比下降3.5%。其中,住宅竣工面积4.8亿平方米,同比下降4.2%。

In 2008, Chinese real estate development enterprises had finished the land purchase areas of 370 million square meters, cut down by 8.6% of 2007 and the land development areas of 260 million square meters, reduced by 5.6% of 2007.

2008年,中国房地产开发企业完成土地购置面积3.7亿平方米,同比下降8.6%;完成土地开发面积2.6亿平方米,同比下降5.6%。

By the end of December, 2008, the vacant areas of Chinese commercial residential building reached to 164 million square meters, increased by 21.8% of 2007. Because of the reduction in the sales volumes, the impossibility to ensure cash smooth and the limitation of the financing channels, the debt ratio of the real estate enterprises grew rapidly.

截至2008年12月末,中国商品房空置面积1.64亿平方米,同比增长21.8%,由于销售量的下降,以及保持现金流和融资渠道通畅的难度加大,房地产开发企业的负债率急剧上升。

Because of the hot real estate market in 2007, many real estate enterprises purchased the lands at a high price, leading to the total high costs. In 2008, the property price declined. Many projects faced the risks of money losses, making the reduction in the cash funds and difficulty in the operations for the enterprises.

由于2007年房地产市场的火热行情,许多房地产开发企业以很高的价格购买开发用地,导致总成本的上升。而到了2008年,房地产价格下降,许多开发项目面临着资金短缺的风险,房地产开发企业资金不足,运营困难。

Because of the economic and development disparities in various regions of China, it led to the large differences of the property prices and the sales revenues from the real estate in different regions. Therefore, when analyzing Chinese property price problems, it is more important to pay attention to the price level in various cities apart from the master of the general situations.

由于中国各地经济发展水平不一致,使得不同区域内房地产价格和销售收入差别巨大。因此,在分析中国房地产价格问题时,必须重视各地的经济发展和物价水平。

In 2008, Chinese real estate market began to show the decline trends as well as the turning point in the property price, especially on 7th August, 2008, the sales price firstly turned down at a link relative ratio and successively persisted to the beginning of 2009. If analyzed by years, the sales prices still grew by 6.5% in seventy large and medium cities compared with 2007, reflecting the high property price in 2008 in China, which was also the important basis for the central government and regional governments to recognize the high property price.

2008年,中国房地产市场开始呈现下降趋势,即产生了价格拐点, 2008年8月7日,房价第一次出现环比下降的情况,并一直持续到2009年伊始。如果分析全年的情况,全国70个大中型城市的房价依旧较2007年上涨6.5%。如何应对2008年居高不下的房价,同样是中国中央政府和地方政府所面临的重要问题。

Chinese real estate market is comparatively typical. Before 1998, the residential distribution systems remained the object distribution systems of the planned economic ages. The subjects of the real estate market had not realized marketization as well as the low degree of land marketization. Therefore, there was not so-called real estate market and the fluctuation period in the real estate market. In the early 1990s, the real estate market in parts of Shenzhen and Hainan etc. fluctuated largely but not the national -wide fluctuation. Therefore, China did not have the historical fluctuation data and experience in the real estate market.

中国的房地产市场特色鲜明,在1998年之前,计划经济时代的住房分配制度依然存在,如同低水平的土地市场化一样,房地产并没有完全市场化。因此也就没有所谓的市场波动。在90年代早起,尽管深圳和海南的房地产市场已是波动频繁,但这仍只是区域性的。所以中国缺少房地产市场波动的历史数据和经验。

At present, Chinese real estate market is still in the sustainable development phase and different from the mature period of the real estate market in the developed countries, such as America. China is in the boost phase of the urbanization and industrialization. The living conditions are very low and the demands for the houses are high, which lay an important foundation for the rapid growth of Chinese residential market.

目前,中国的房地产市场仍处于发展阶段,还未达到像美国一样的发达国家的成熟水平。中国正在迅速的城市化和工业化,对住房的需求十分巨大,这为中国房地产市场的迅速发展奠定了重要基础。

With the implementation of a series of macro- control measures issued by Chinese government to curb the property price hikes and the influences of international financial crisis, some speculativeness and investment funds will gradually withdraw from Chinese real estate market. It is predicted that Chinese property price will successively reduce to a reasonable level.

随着中国政府为了应对居高不下的房价和国际金融危机而出台的一系列宏观调控政策的实施,一些外国投资开始逐渐撤离中国的房地产市场,这也暗示着中国的房价将会降至一个合理的水平。
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